Another good way to check for an improbable outcome is to ask this: Does another explanation for this outcome already exist? When was psychology accepted as an academic discipline? ________ is a perspective within psychology that emphasizes the potential for good that is innate to all humans, proposing a hierarchy of human needs in motivating behavior. So the logic of the burglar argument is shown to be weak. For general explanations, a good way to check for simplicity is to ask whether the explanation predicts the smoothest possible curve.In the 17th century, the Italian mathematician Torricelli hypothesized that the Earth was surrounded by a sea of air, which decreased in pressure uniformly as the altitude increased. It includes the presumption of causation. Favor outcomes for which no explanation already exists. Describes knowledge that is based on experience and observations that are rational, testable, and repeatable. It assigned a central role to gravity, which is, in effect, action at a distance; but it did not offer any account of how gravitational forces can act across space without any intervening physical bodies. This condition is the logical requirement on any inductive argument that its conclusion fit appropriately with the total available evidence. Exploratory research is defined as a research used to investigate a problem which is not clearly defined. Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? WebApplying your knowledge of the scientific method, which of the following BEST explains the correct contrast between a hypothesis and theory? d. Frustration produces physical but not psychological aggression. A useful scientific hypothesis is one that is: A hypothesis that states that there is a lack of relationship between two factors is called: When conducting a scientific experiment, which of the following is tested? Please give like. This hypothesis is not necessarily the right explanation. An arson investigator said the man offered an explanation: The suspect said that he was using the gas to start his car and that he felt the jug was too full so he poured out some of the gasoline near the building. A theory has been extensively tested and is generally accepted among a set of scholars; a hypothesis is a speculative guess that has yet to be tested. D. It excludes the presumption of Skeptics have suggested another explanation: Perhaps this is because of peculiarities in each islands food. Carl Hempel, The Philosophy of Natural Science. This is the place to ask about coincidence as an alternative explanation. Healthy people who rate their health as poor know enough about their health to know that they are not as healthy as healthy people who rate their health as excellent. Given that they are elderly and in the low end of the healthy group, they will die sooner. Aggression is detrimental to performance. Introspection refers to a process by which someone examines ________ as objectively as possible. But this does not make the special-powers explanation more probable than the deception explanation; it simply enlarges the deception. c. when participants perceive they are the recipients of poor officiating c. Hypotheses usually are relatively narrow in scope; theories have broad explanatory power. If the prior probability of the outcome is high, then we expect the outcome to happen anywayeven if the hypothesis is false. This is why, for example, we are amused but not persuaded by the rooster who thinks that the sun is raised each morning by his mighty crowing. a. instinct theory b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. applying a set of skills to understand and evaluate information. . B. If you were to design an experiment to test whether a particular pathogen caused a disease, which of the following choices would be the first step and which the last step you would make if you followed the scientific method precisely? b. violence is modeled by young amateur hockey players Empirical knowledge is knowledge that is based on experience and observation. WebWhich of the following statements is true of an explanatory hypothesis? We are the only two people in this apartment. Sales of vegetarian foods vary by season. Examples of this abound, even in some of the most widely accepted explanatory theories. This makes good sense. . Firefighters doused the flaming Molotov cocktail and then detained the man . C. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. (The Vitamin C example is similar; one reason that researchers have not worked harder at collecting evidence for the theory is because it is unclear how it would work. The point is that, other things being equal, simple explanations, like frequently occurring and nonmysterious explanations, have a higher prior probability. Treatment: in a research study, any condition applied to subjects - those in the treatment group - that is not applied to subjects in a control group. All of the above are reasons for stating a null hypothesis. The comet argument can be clarified as follows: The correct form for an explanatory argument should look familiarit is also the form of the fallacy of affirming the consequent, introduced in Chapter 11. But how can the mere belief that one is doomed be fatal? In another type of distinction, some explanatory arguments are general, given that they have application to a wide range of possible observable outcomes; others are singular, in that they apply only to a specific outcome. And it is highly probable that we will have any observation at all. So, an unfalsifiable explanation fails the improbable outcome test. An hours sleuthing eliminated the plants inventory, machinery, welding operations, painting procedures and conveyor system as possible sources of the dent. Newtons theories, for example, while applied here to Halleys comet, actually cover the motion of all objects at all times. For example, our hypothesis in this case could be that the toast didn't toast because the electrical outlet is broken. As a consequence of organisms' ability to reproduce and of evolutionary change, populations may become better adapted to their environments. c. Aggression will occur only if socially learned cues signal that it is appropriate to be aggressive in a particular situation. Explanation: the meteorite came from Mars. A statement that enables us both to predict and to better understand the cause of that which it explains. That would tend to imply that the damned thing blew up. , Woman interviewed on TV: At first I heard a funny roar. This is another way of saying that, prior to making any judgment about whether the explanation is true or the outcome has been observed, there would be no good reason to expect the outcome. The first premise states that the theory, or the explanation, really does enable you to predict the facts, or the observable outcome. Step 3. Some explanations will eventually measure up to the standards of good reasoning; that is no reason to eliminate the standards. People in the South tend to rate the President more favorably than do people in the North Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004. Fairly strong. Explanatory arguments require humble attention to the facts of our experience, as Huxley notes above. For example, our hypothesis in this case could be that the toast didn't toast because the electrical outlet is broken. Pa! exclaimed the youngster, they are getting ready to pee on the hay! Well, son, replied the father, youve got the facts all right, but have reached the wrong conclusion. Lincolns client, we are told, was acquitted. 1. If there are too many blanks, then the explanations prior probability is too low for the argument to be logically strong. Ask whether an outcome rules out the leading alternative explanations. Do not worry for now whether the observable outcome Relatives gather close to the victim, wailing, chanting, and covering the victim with a funeral cloth. or she may have been secretly using a two-headed coin. C. It's correlated, but not causal. c. Small-scale, on-the-field aggressive acts serve as triggers for crowd aggression. But it is possible to specify the lowest hurdle that must be cleared. Singular explanationsthat the butler did it, or that the man was a Marine sergeantare designed to apply to a very specific thing or eventto this particular murder or to that particular mans physical characteristics. In 1695, Edmund Halley began to ponder whether Newtons account of celestial mechanics was correct and, in particular, whether it applied to the motion of comets. Which of the following statements is true of an explanatory Just watchas my horoscope says, something will disappoint me today. WebThe explanatory hypothesis is the heart of the case formulation. What distinction (if any) is there between a scientific theory and a conceptual one that might lead you to disagree with this argument? b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. a. athletes view aggressive acts that would be judged inappropriate in society in general as more appropriate in the sport environment c. Aggression sometimes facilitates performance and sometimes does not. a. Franklin D. Trumpy, Skeptical Inquirer (Concern yourself with the inference made by Dr. Working-class individuals are more often involved in aggressive spectator actions. b. athletes view aggressive acts as more appropriate in society than in the sport environment c. athletes have higher moral development than nonathletes Singular explanationan explanation that is designed to apply only to a single thing or event. A steady, respectable, middle-aged man, too, on the face of himall facts which led me to believe that he had been a sergeant. Wonderful! I ejaculated. Abbys explanation is that the wife is having an affair; the observable outcome is that the pipe unexpectedly appears and then mysteriously disappears. Then it is an explanatory argument. My employer values me. A measurable entity that is created by the process being observed and whose value cannot be controlled; generally represented on the y- axis in a graph and expected to change in response to a change in the independent variable. e. They were born with an aggressive urge, e. They were born with an aggressive urge, Research on game reasoning (also called bracketed morality) has shown that Also, the doctors reported, an extensive battery of pulmonary function tests failed to produce the kinds of findings that are characteristic of an asthmatic. Punishing student pilots when they perform poorly is followed by improved performance more often than rewarding them when they perform well. Why, that he was a retired sergeant of Marines. . And it contains the two essential components of an explanatory argument. d. a and b a. as a circle Is the frequently observed, poorly understood, phenomenon that people tend to respond favorably to any treatment. . This is not to say dogmatically that magic cannot happen. Butterfingers, of course. Searching for a once volcanic place of origin, researchers ruled out both Venus, because the atmosphere is too thick for such a rock to have escaped, and the moon, since it stopped erupting 3 billion years ago. He has just come from the tropics, for his face is dark, and that is not the natural tint of his skin, for his wrists are fair. If you evaluate the probability of the appearance of the comet but include in your background evidence the assumption that Newton is correct, then (setting aside the problem this would probably be the fallacy of begging the question) the probability of the 1758 comet would be very highit is, after all, derived from the Newtonian explanation as its outcome! Several of the younger trees by Beaver Creek stream are now nothing more than two-foot posts sticking out of the ground; the treetops are nowhere around, and the top of each stump comes to a curious point. She must be a good driver, since she usually gets where shes going without running into anybody. You might be impressed until you learn that I asked all 30 students in my class to stand up and try to toss heads. The notes said: If you find this note before May 1, call David Bell at the, Delynn Carter learned that the dramatic episodes of wheezing, which incapacitated her almost daily for the last eight years, were due not to asthma but to a vocal cord dysfunction that mimicked the symptoms of asthma and can be treated by speech therapy. Make observations. her own conscious experience. Ban alcoholic beverages at sporting events. Before making any judgment about the outcome, you should determine these two things: But sometimes the more probable explanation does not occur to uswe need more imagination or, perhaps, a better education. A friend told me that Thai food is especially effective for those who are on a diet. The oracle tended to utter solemn pronouncements of a very unspecific sortfor example, I see grave misfortune in your future. It was almost inevitable that such a vague prediction would come true. Hypotheses are guesses; theories are correct answers. In many cases, an explanation is formulated before the observable outcome has been observed. Newtons theories, for example, while applied here to Halleys comet, actually cover the motion of all objects at all times. Two kinds of theories have been proposed. If the Earth is surrounded by a sea of air that decreases uniformly in pressure as the altitude increases, then Periers barometer reads 30 inches at 0 feet, 28.7 inches at 1,300 feet, 28.2 inches at 1,800 feet, 27.2 inches at 2,800 feet, and 26.2 inches at 3,800 feet, and 25.2 inches at 4,800 feet. One good way to check for an improbable outcome is to ask this: Is this outcome so vague that it might well be true anyway? a. immature Because the ideas of creationism cannot be tested through experiment and observation. Which of the following is not involved in critical thinking? Then, recalling our discussion of evaluating the truth of bothand sentences in Chapter 10, the prior probability that it was both of them can be roughly understood as .10 times .10, or .01. That smacked of the sea. Note that I am being careful not to say that coincidence is thus proven to be the correct explanation; the point, a more modest one, is that skill is not supported as the correct explanation. The lights in this old house keep flickering. In ancient Greece, when there was a difficult decision to be made, the wealthy Greeks would sometimes travel to Delphi and consult the oracle therean oracle who, it was believed, had special powers to foresee the future. Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous observations that cannot satisfactorily be explained with the available scientific theories. Can appear to reveal links between two phenomena that do not actually exist. d. Frustration produces physical but not psychological aggression. Which of the following have shown the strongest relationship? First part: The prior probability of the prediction is extremely lowhelped especially by the inclusion of predictions (i.e., no relevant difference in food from island to island) that succeed in falsifying alternative hypotheses (i.e., that the difference is because of difference in food). Sample answer. Premise 1 is probably true. This interpretation of the saying is unfalsifiable and can receive no logical support from the nature of ones experience. Circles that had only later begun to appear elsewhere, they suggested, were created by copycats. It describes why the individual is having problems. hypothesis? A) experiential method B) scientific method C) intuitive process D) strategic management process E) account planning philosophy B) scientific method C. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. During the previous winter MIU had been involved in a major construction project (a domed structure for the practice of levitation). This interlocks with the test, under the preceding improbable-outcome criterion, of asking whether an explanation for the outcome already exists. sentence with an appropriate personal pronoun. c. with the intent to harm psychologically. For singular explanationssuch as The butler did it or This man was a Marine sergeantthe best question to ask is this: Is this sort of thing known to occur, and does it occur more frequently than do the leading alternatives? One good way to check for simplicitya way typically more useful with singular than with general explanationsis to ask whether the explanation offers only as many explanatory entities as needed. , Why is Tylenol the pain reliever hospitals use most? The ads imply that its better than other brands. Scientists were right to reject these formerly offbeat views until they could make good sense of them, and they will be right to reject the paranormal, ancient astronauts, and homeopathic medicine until they can also make good sense of them. As we have seen in the preceding chapters, the conclusion of a strong induction must fit both the premises and the available background evidence. Simplicity contributes to epistemic probability, so ask whether the explanation is sufficiently simple. e. a and c, Which of the following is not an explanation put forth to explain athletes' aggressive behavior? Frustration produces increased anger or pain. When I bought the housedespite its terrible conditionthe sellers let slip that someone had died here. To be useful in the scientific method, an observation must be: Despite all the intellectual analyses the scientific method gives rise to and objective conclusions it makes possible, it CANNOT. It makes no statement with respect to causation. observation - question - hypotheses - predictions - results of investigation - conclusions Which are true of a hypothesis? Taken from the DEAR ABBY column by Abigail Van Buren. Could you find out for me which five days that man is on the road? Draw conclusions and make revisions. There were 15, then 8, then 4, then 2; then, after the fifth toss, this one student remained. When people insist that they have no repressed memories, then, Freud considers this to be evidence for the presence of resistance, which is itself evidence for the existence of repression. d. Let athletes decide on what punishments fit different aggressive and violent behaviors. a. a. reactive versus instrumental To illustrate this bias, suppose I tell you that I have in mind a set of numbers that includes the numbers 2, 4, and 6, and I then ask you to guess what set of numbers I am thinking of. Treatment: in a research study, any condition applied to subjects - those in the treatment group - that is not applied to subjects in a control group. 16. d. all of the above People in the South tend to rate the President more favorably than do people in the North Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004. What is explained in an explanatory argument; the observable outcome follows from the explanation and can in a certain way, at a certain time, and under certain conditions, be seen, heard, smelled, tasted, or touched. a. assertive behavior. Thirty of the 40 who died were men and, says Grayson, most of the male deaths occurred before that of a single woman. I know of some people with cancer who smoke. , For years, scientifically trained observers dismissed voodoo death as primitive superstition. People in the South tend to rate the President more favorably than do people in the North Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004. Would it require the world to function in mysterious ways or in ways that differ dramatically from the ways that are well established by science? Young women purchase fewer meats than women who are 35 years of age or older. My friend was right. Also termed the data, the prediction, or the facts. I saw the sagebrush and the grass wiggling and starting to shake, and I thought, Earthquake.. So, not only is the prior probability of magic negligible, but it is far lower than that of the leading alternative, illusion. 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which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis