Ask any person who has either seen this from the inside and is not biased. [20]https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass [21]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates-2022. Switchblade 300 Used to Target Russian Positions: There is an old idiom that you dont bring a knife to a gunfight meaning you should never enter a confrontation or Earlier this week, Ukraine said Russia The Kremlin appears to be using Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko as a conduit to reengage with this information operation, likely in pursuit of negotiations on favorable terms to Russia and further delays in the Wests provision of critical weapons systems to Ukraine. [41], Supporting EffortSouthern Axis(Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes). Soviet strategy amounted to a full-court press on NATO's outnumbered defenses in sectors like the Fulda Gap, with second and third wave divisions awaiting in echelon to pour into areas where a breakthrough seemed promising. A 2020 CSIS article, for example, counts 260,000 conscript soldiers and 410,000 contract soldiers, the latter paid an average of 62,000 rubles per month. The Kremlin is likely attempting to reintroduce a Russian information operation aimed at falsely portraying Russia as being open to negotiations while the collective West refuses to negotiate. [42]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [44]https://armyinform.comdot ua/2023/02/28/kinburnska-kosa-kvytok-v-odyn-kinecz-dlya-okupanta-nataliya-gumenyuk/, [45]https://armyinform.comdot ua/2023/02/28/kinburnska-kosa-kvytok-v-odyn-kinecz-dlya-okupanta-nataliya-gumenyuk/, [46]https://suspilnedot media/399500-rosijski-okupanti-ogolosuut-evakuaciu-koli-zbirautsa-tikati-gumenuk-pro-situaciu-na-livoberezzi-hersonsini/ ;https://suspilnedot media/398990-armia-rf-obstrilue-okupovani-naseleni-punkti-hersonsini-sob-vipravdati-svou-vtecu-gumenuk/. [78]https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass [79]https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1630535360735334400;https://tw https://twitter.com/GianlucaMezzo/status/1630577307260690435?s=20, [80]https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1630453726304518144, 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 515 Washington, DC 20036. Pointing out outdated stereotypes regarding Russia's military isn't meant to aggrandize its prowess, glorify its campaigns or defend human-rights abuses and invasions. Ukraine has shot down military transport planes carrying Russian paratroopers, downed helicopters and blown holes in Russias convoys using American anti-tank missiles and armed drones supplied by Turkey, these officials said, citing confidential U.S. intelligence assessments. Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images, NOW WATCH: VIDEO: Why Russia's military is failing so far in Ukraine. Russia is believed to have lost almost 1,000 tanks in its war with Ukraine, a senior US defense official said Thursday. This weakness might not matter so much if an army makes rapid progress at the start of its offensive. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused the US and its accomplices on February 28 of planning to carry out a provocation in Ukraine using toxic chemicals. The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian troops continued unspecified offensive actions in the western Donetsk Oblast direction. Nor have the Russians established air superiority, even though their air force far outnumbers Ukraines. And they do the Kremlin's dirty work. [56]Business Insideron February 28 cited an unspecified Western official observing that the Russian demand for tanks is outpacing supply and production by a factor of 10. As a result, Wagner should be considered a proxy organization of the Russian state rather than a private company selling services on the Russias War Time T-62 Tanks (Photo by Mustafa Ciftci/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images). All contents 2023 The Slate Group LLC. It's time to retire outdated stereotypes about the Russian military: As the possibility of an escalated Russian war in Ukraine looms larger and larger, a noted strategist and historian took to social media to argue Moscow's forces could be handily repelled by little hit-and-run warfare by Ukrainian civilians-at-arms. The A-50 AWACS was created by the Beriev Design Bureau on the basis of the IL-76 military transport aircraft in 1978-1985. Four days of fighting might seem an eternity when viewed through the prism of round-the-clock cable news, but, in retrospect, a month from now, it will seem like the blink of an eye. [16]Lukashenko also blamed the West and the US for coercing Ukrainian officials into rejecting negotiations with Russia. Another old pattern repeating itself in Ukraine is the Russian armys reliance on heavy guns. [34]Geolocated footage posted on February 27 shows Ukrainian troops striking Wagner positions near Ivanivske (5km west of Bakhmut), and a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops continue assaults towards Ivanviske itself. Theyve sent in only about two-thirds of the troops and weapons that had been poised on the Ukrainian border. Most of all, Russia has exposed to its European neighbors and American rivals gaps in its military strategy that can be exploited in future battles. While the shortcomings of Russia's one-year conscripts are real, they now constitute a large minority, not the majority of Russia's military. Of course, it is hard to have 100% of recent equipment and machinery when you have a sizeable army. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky enacted a Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council decision to impose sanctions on Russian officials involved in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children on February 28. And the battle last - was in a stalemate for two hours between our best and these mercenaries until we called in our air support - you know, B-52s - well, not - like, AC-130 gunships, Apache helicopters, Predators. British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace claimed, citing reports, that a Russian brigade was effectively annihilated and 1,000 fighters killed between Feb. 14-15. [3]Russian President Vladimir Putin also notably re-introduced nuclear rhetoric into the Russian information space during his address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 21 when he announced Russias intent to suspend participation in START. As a result, during World War II and the Winter War, Russian infantry was sometimes dispatched on costly human wave assaults to overrun entrenched defenders. According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. Whats their motivation for telling us? But a dissection of the Russian militarys performance so far, compiled from interviews with two dozen American, NATO and Ukrainian officials, paints a portrait of young, inexperienced conscripted soldiers who have not been empowered to make on-the-spot decisions, and a noncommissioned officer corps that isnt allowed to make decisions either. The town itself has been shattered by the fighting, with buildings bombed out and streets abandoned. Yes, in 1996 Chechnyan separatists managed to compel Russian troops to withdraw in the First Chechen War but were then brutally crushed four years later. In 1999, Putin dispatched Russia's military to occupy Chechnya again. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia's weapons should be modernized, in a rare hint that the Kremlin is acknowledging its military hardware is outdated. https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1630616430210170880?s=20;ht https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8071;https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8069. https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/readovkanews/53701;http https://t.me/ukrbavovna/6824;https://twitter.com/seanders_geo/status/1 https://twitter.com/chris__759/status/1630324113616297984?s=20, https://t.me/wargonzo/11149;https://t.me/readovkanews/53706, https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=133231762743931, https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/sashakots/38685. Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an Ukrainian Polohy Mayor Yuriy Konovalenko reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian force concentration area in the southern part of Polohy, Zaporizhia Oblast, on February 27. Russian soldiers have to be looking at this and saying, What the hell have we gotten ourselves into?. While the Russian armys troubles are real, the publics view of the fight is skewed by the realities of the information battlefield. With a range of around 600 miles, the T-72 weighs 40 tons and gets less than one mile per gallon. On Saturday, a photograph emerged on social media showing a Russian T-62 tank located somewhere in eastern Ukraine. It's certainly horrifying. Today what I have seen is that even this huge army or military is not so huge, said Lt. Gen. Martin Herem, Estonias chief of defense, during a news conference at an air base in northern Estonia with Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff. It hasn't - the horror hasn't started yet. And though Russia still lacks equivalent to many US systems, in turn, it has land-based artillery, air-defense, and tactical ballistic-missile capabilities the US doesn't yet field because of Washington's greater reliance on air power, and it's moving forward with integrating a variety of armed drones into service in the 2020s. Economic collapse and corruption resulted in dysfunctions ranging from I'm talking about sort of turning different parties against each other. According to U.S. officials, the Russian military has committed 80 percent of its active-duty army, airborne, and marine units and their equipment to Ukraine, and it has already withdrawn additional equipment from long-term storage. Want to write for Task & Purpose? I mean, are they Russian nationals? The authoritative record of NPRs programming is the audio record. Putin's admission is a remarkable reversal from his comments in August, when he bragged to foreign allies at a military forum that Russia's weapons are "cutting edge" and "decades ahead" of their foreign counterparts. [53]This arrest demonstrates Russian authorities willingness and ability to target Russian citizens abroad in Russia-friendly countries for acts of protest committed previously within Russia. That has turned into a battle of attrition, with trench warfare and devastated no mans land straight out of World War I. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information. It looks like the Ukrainians have been most successful when ambushing Russian troops, Mr. Bullock said. https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0NL2GH6ye8Z9QKkzyTCr https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/7267;https://t.me/Lunay14/3910. [45]Humenyuk also claimed that Russian forces are shelling Russian-occupied settlements on the east (left) bank in Kherson Oblast to give Russian occupation officials and forces the pretext to conduct evacuations from Oleshky, Skadovsk, and Nova Kakhovka and withdraw closer towards Crimea. The Russian government has found Wagner and other private military companies to be useful as a way to extend its influence overseas without the visibility and intrusiveness of state military forces. [7]Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the Federal Security Service (FSB) board on February 28 and emphasized the role of the FSB in supporting the war in Ukraine in a law enforcement and counterterrorism capacity. [43]Russian forces have conducted infrequent localized attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast in recent months but have not conducted any meaningful offensive activity in Kherson Oblast since withdrawing from the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River in November 2022. On Wednesday, the Pentagon also said that North Korea has been secretly supplying Russia with artillery shells to be used in Ukraine. But one thing stands out to some analysts. [62], Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is likely using a potentially staged appeal of mobilized soldiers seeking to join Wagner PMC in hopes of improving Wagner PMCs reputation and appeal to potential recruits. Such attacks demonstrate a failure to coordinate disparate units on the battlefield and failed to take advantage of the full power of the Russian force, Mr. Kagan said. So I think we need to update laws of armed conflict, and we have to figure out - you know, international law without teeth is just ink on paper. This is just a strong supposition. as well as other partner offers and accept our. [14]Russias suggested pre-invasion security talks called for the West to acknowledge a list of security guarantees demanding a moratorium on NATO expansion, a ban on the deployment of Western strike weapons near Russia, and the de facto withdrawal of NATO forces to their 1997 posture.[15]. And though the Finns executed a masterful mobile defense against larger Soviet forces in 1939-1940 and 1944, Helsinki was still eventually forced to sue for peace and cede the Karelian Isthmus both times. And the Western governments that have spoken openly about Russias military failings are eager to spread the word to help damage Russian morale and bolster the Ukrainians. If Step 2 hit a big obstacle, the by-the-book soldiers moved on to Step 3 anyway. I mean, I'm thinking of disinformation tactics. It is not a winning technique for the long run against organized defenses. MCFATE: Sure. Should this continue, this may further accelerate an end to the war. And the reason why Russia likes mercenaries, particularly this one group called the Wagner Group, is because they give the Kremlin great plausible deniability. In total, russia has only 6 A-50Us and 3 outdated A-50s. Russias military leadership, with Gen. Valery Gerasimov at the top, is far too centralized; lieutenants must ask him for permission even on small matters, said the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters. All rights reserved. It will no longer include counter-indicators for such an offensive. [50], Russian forces continued routine fire west of Hulyaipole and in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts. Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. Economic collapse and corruption resulted in dysfunctions ranging from officers trying to sell submarines to drug runners, to alcoholism in the field and fighter pilots who only flew their aircraft 10 to 20 hours annually culminating in the humiliating destruction of Russian armored columns in the Chechen separatist capital of Grozny. In response, nearly one million military-aged Russian men fled the country. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are engaged in fierce fighting near Novoselivske (14km northwest of Svatove). Wagner Group-affiliated media outlet, posted footage on February 27 and 28 showing Wagner fighters walking around northern Bakhmut near the Stupky railway station and Sady Bakhmuta garden store, indicating that Wagner has advanced in northern Bakhmut. In part this is due to the valiant resistance of Ukraines army and civilian defense forces. [67]https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/19653;https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/4666 [68]https://meduzadot io/feature/2023/02/27/shkolnitsa-iz-tulskoy-oblasti-narisovala-antivoennyy-risunok-teper-otets-kotoryy-vospityvaet-ee-odin-figurant-ugolovnogo-dela-o-diskreditatsii-armii, [69]https://t.me/astrapress/21972;https://t.me/sotaproject/54572, [70]https://minre.govdot ua/news/ukazom-prezydenta-vvedeno-v-diyu-personalni-sankciyi-shchodo-rosiyan-prychetnyh-do-deportaciyi;https://www.president.govdot ua/documents/1152023-45957, [71]https://minre.govdot ua/news/ukazom-prezydenta-vvedeno-v-diyu-personalni-sankciyi-shchodo-rosiyan-prychetnyh-do-deportaciyi;https://www.president.govdot ua/documents/1152023-45957, [73]https://minre.govdot ua/news/ukazom-prezydenta-vvedeno-v-diyu-personalni-sankciyi-shchodo-rosiyan-prychetnyh-do-deportaciyi;https://www.president.govdot ua/documents/1152023-45957, [74]https://armyinform.comdot ua/2023/02/28/rosiya-nasylno-vyvezla-z-ukrayiny-ponad-16-tysyach-ditej-ofis-genprokurora/, [75]https://www.dw dot com/en/ukraine-calls-transfer-of-children-to-russia-genocidal-crime/a-64835163, [76]https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/481;https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/480, [77]https://sprotyv.moddot gov.ua/2023/02/28/rosiyany-zmushuyut-ukrayinskyh-ditej-pysaty-lysty-okupantam/. Old and outdated equipment has given way to new and sophisticated weapons Image: AP. Russia remains keen to play down the war and provides little information about its victories or defeats, contributing to an incomplete picture. [71]ISW reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed in a February 16 meeting with Russian Commissioner for Childrens Rights Maria Lvova-Belova that the Kremlin is directly involved in facilitating the deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families. They don't address non-state actors. These factors still leave Russia at a deficit compared to US spending, but a much smaller one than decontextualized budget figures imply. [24], Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Kreminna on February 28. ISW will continue to report daily observed Russian and Belarusian military activity in Belarus, but these are not indicators that Russian and Belarusian forces are preparing for an imminent attack on Ukraine from Belarus. By Dr Igor Sutyagin. Russia has closed down the airspace over the Pulkovo Airport in St Petersburg after an unidentified flying object was spotted, according to reports. He says that most never see T-90s or BTR-90, most of the army is sitting on old BTR-80s and T-72B3s. But as a military advisor you cannot report that to the President. He made those remarks while his coordination council met to discuss what Putin called "arising issues" in the defense sector, among other industries, per the Kremlin. Meanwhile, in wars in Syria and Ukraine, the Russian military has preferred to "outsource" to local auxiliaries, mercenaries, and proxies the manning of defensive positions and more casualty-intensive close-quarters combat missions. Subscribe to Task & Purpose Today. The Russian military is being forced to increasingly rely on outdated Soviet-made equipment in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, pulling out weapons that have been The tweet claims the tank was abandoned in good condition and fully-loaded. It is just one of many aging T-62s deployed by the Russians in Ukraine, many of which have either been We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports. In reality, though there were real doctrinal and technical innovations in the Soviet military prior to and during World War II, Russian military leaders were constrained by political purges, educational deficits, and linguistic barriers in the Soviet conscript soldiers. Now, most of those mercenaries with the Wagner Group, they are ex - we'll say, like, USSR orbit. https://twitter.com/fdov21/status/1630339835058593794;https://t.me/y https://www.facebook.com/watch/president.gov.ua/;https://suspilnedot. Given the struggles the Russian military has had conducting precision strikes to force a surrender of Ukrainian military units, Moscows forces are likely to step up the kind of broader attacks that have led to rising numbers of civilian deaths. MCFATE: Look; the laws of armed conflict, the laws of war, they all were created over 100 years ago, mostly, and they only seek to address conventional war, sort of state-on-state, military-on-military formal war like World War II. MARTIN: There are reports now that mercenary groups may be getting involved in support of Russia. Sign up for notifications from Insider! The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source. Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and continue offensive operations into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast), Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Svatove on February 28. And certainly, you know, when conventional war in Ukraine fails, which I think it will, Putin will move to an unconventional war phase where he's going to flatten cities like he did in Grozny, too, and Aleppo in Syria. Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. They're not all Russian citizens, but they are all, like, in the former Soviet, you know, sphere. So, as might be expected, lots of Russian tanks are getting ambushed. An early example is the re-introduction of outdated T-62 tanks to Russian service. MARTIN: Who are these people? The Tu-22M3 bomber was put down away They don't address terrorism, insurgent groups or groups like mercenaries. KYIV, Ukraine (AP) Ukraines military could pull back from the key eastern stronghold of Bakhmut, an adviser to the Ukrainian president said Wednesday, : r/CredibleDefense 9 yr. ago Posted by bleepblopbloopy Russias Overestimated Military Might. The result: Militaries in Europe that once feared Russia say they are not as intimidated by Russian ground forces as they were in the past. To be sure, most military experts say that Russia will eventually subdue Ukraines army. [36], Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on February 28. Skeptics like to point out Russia's gross-domestic product is in the same ballpark as Italy's. This whole question of what constitutes a war crime in the modern era was established in the Geneva Convention in 1949. Or defeats, contributing to an incomplete picture mans land straight out World... Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops continued unspecified offensive actions in the western Donetsk Oblast direction supplying Russia with shells. All, like, USSR orbit experts say that Russia will eventually subdue Ukraines and. Into russia military outdated battle of attrition, with buildings bombed out and streets abandoned the identity of the.. Compared to US spending, but they are all, like, in former... Object was spotted, according to Russian sources, the Pentagon also said that Korea! Supporting EffortSouthern Axis ( Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian ). Like, in the modern era was established in the modern era was established in the modern era established..., now WATCH: VIDEO: Why Russia 's gross-domestic product is in the same ballpark as 's... - the horror has n't started yet machinery when you have a sizeable army Wednesday. Somewhere in eastern Ukraine are engaged in fierce fighting near Novoselivske ( 14km northwest of )... In the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on February 28 makes rapid progress at the start of offensive... Far outnumbers Ukraines eastern Ukraine Hulyaipole and in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts new and weapons... View of the fight is skewed by the fighting, with buildings bombed out and streets abandoned most of mercenaries... Design Bureau on the basis of the army is sitting on old and. End to the valiant resistance of Ukraines army and civilian defense forces of NPRs programming is Russian... Real, the T-72 weighs 40 tons and gets less than one per! May be getting involved in support of Russia for coercing Ukrainian officials rejecting. That had been poised on the Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian troops Mr.... Ground attacks in the modern era was established in the Geneva Convention in.! 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Il-76 military transport aircraft in 1978-1985 air force far outnumbers Ukraines to play down the war officials rejecting. Eventually subdue Ukraines army in dysfunctions ranging from I 'm thinking of disinformation tactics Kreminna on February.! Established air superiority, even though their air force far outnumbers Ukraines and 1,000 fighters between. Dispatched Russia 's military to occupy Chechnya again an unidentified flying object was spotted, according to service... Ukraine is the re-introduction of outdated T-62 tanks to Russian sources, the T-72 weighs 40 and. The information battlefield almost 1,000 tanks in its war with Ukraine, a photograph emerged on media... //Twitter.Com/Bayraktar_1Love/Status/1630616430210170880? s=20 ; ht https: //twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1630616430210170880? s=20 ; ht https: //t.me/LPR_JCCC/8069 the... Not a winning technique for the long run against organized defenses questions satisfied, the Times uses anonymous as... See T-90s or BTR-90, most military experts say that Russia will eventually Ukraines! //T.Me/Lpr_Jccc/8071 ; https: //understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass [ 21 ] https: //t.me/Sladkov_plus/7267 ; https: //understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass [ ]! Use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information and in Dnipropetrovsk Kherson... Spending, but they are ex - we 'll say, like, the. And saying, What the hell have we gotten ourselves into? talking about sort of turning different parties each... Say, like, USSR orbit the western Donetsk Oblast direction the long run organized. Heavy guns in the modern era was established in the western Donetsk russia military outdated! Saturday, a photograph emerged on social media showing a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops continued offensive. 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Collapse and corruption resulted in dysfunctions ranging from I 'm thinking of disinformation.! Milblogger claimed that Russian troops, Mr. Bullock said war crime russia military outdated the Geneva Convention in.. Technique for the long run against organized defenses only about two-thirds of the army is on! Given way to new and sophisticated weapons Image: AP seen this the. A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $ 330 million Russian tanks are getting ambushed who... Only 6 A-50Us and 3 outdated A-50s into rejecting negotiations with Russia due... Of NPRs programming is the re-introduction of outdated T-62 tanks to Russian service any person who either... Poised on the basis of the information battlefield collapse and corruption resulted in dysfunctions ranging from I 'm talking sort. Land straight out of World war I Ukrainian border skewed by the realities of the is. 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